Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Delaware: Rotten & Shameful

First, let's get the facts straight.
Delaware is a dinky state, 2nd physically smallest of all of the 50 states and 45th smallest in population, with less than a million folks (around 885,000) scattered throughout our 1,953.56 square miles.   The majority of the folks, 534,634 or 60% , live in New Castle county, one of the 3 counties of the state.  We reside in what is known in The First State, as living above the canal.  This physical division of the state tends to reflect the political leanings of the state.  Above the canal, there are more registered Democrats while below the canal there are more Republicans.  For those unfamiliar with the state, Dover, its capital, is located dead center in the state in Kent County.

Christine O'Donnell won every district of every county below the canal, while Mike Castle carried the majority of New Castle County's districts, although he did lose all of the districts touching the northern side of the canal.  Geographically, it was a downstate v. upstate rout.

The results, upon closer inspection, look like this.
O'Donnell won the Republican primary to run for US Senator over Castle by a margin of 3,540 votes, 30,561 v. 27,021, or 53% v. 47%.  Now, assuming that in this primary all of the Republicans voting for their candidates all did cast a vote for either O'Donnell or Castle.  So, the total number of votes cast of 57,582, which was reported as an indication that 32% of registered Republican voters, would equate to a rough figure of 180,000 registered Republicans. (actually 182,796 but my math's close enough).  So... of the registered Republican voters, only 17% voted for the Tea Party candidate. Using the same logic, a 12%  (or 34,721 votes cast in the state-wide primary for Democratic Treasurer candidate) showing by the Dems in this election would rough out to 289,000  (actually 292,738, but you can see my math's close enough)

So, if 23.4% of the population is under 18, based on the latest population of 885,000, that would equate to about 673,000 possible voters, of which 180,000 Republicans would represent  27% and the 289,000 Democrats would be 43% of possible voters, leaving the balance of 30% or 204,000 age-eligible voters as Independents or un-registered and disinterested.  Aside from having the good sense to not involve themselves with O'Donnell, the Delaware Republican Party and Castle have seen their own version of the numbers and have opted not to support O'Donnell's further advance toward being one of Delaware's 2 U.S. Senators.  O'Donnell certainly hasn't helped herself.  She's a train wreck, all the more of a surprise that she got this far.....which only shows you how bizarre Delaware can be at times.

The worst part of this is that Mike Castle, a well-respected, decent, and honorable man who has served capably as Delaware's governor and US Representative for over 16 years has suffered his only major political defeat to O'Donnell of all people.  It is a sad State of affairs for Delaware, for the Republican Party, and the national political climate.  My hope is that in 6 weeks, Delaware's sentient registered voters will go out to cast their vote for someone who will actually represent our state and give the US Senate a responsible, proven, and thinking person.  Chris Coons.

To Mike Castle, thank you for all your years of service and wish things had worked out as most reasonable people had expected them to, with you being our next US Senator.  It seemed a perfect storm of bad timing and voters not capable of seperating wheat from chaff.

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